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I love data. I love data because it counters water-cooler talk. It stands firm against the hype from Webinars and keynote addresses. So when the latest Industry Measure Design & Production survey was released (#24 Winter 2007/08), I immediately scanned through to see what kind of tantalizing data I might find.
In this survey, the Industry Measure asked about creatives' changing job mix, whether their billings or department volumes of offset, digital, and other kinds of jobs are increasing, decreasing, or staying the same (or done at all). It's always interesting to see how the answers match conventional wisdom. Let's take a look.
Offset: Although conventional wisdom says that offset is going the way of the Model T, this isn't quite true. Creatives do say that their volume of offset jobs is declining (33 percent say their billings or department volumes of these jobs is declining "a little" [1–25 percent] or "a lot" [25 percent or more]). But 15 percent say that their billings or department volumes are increasing. So while the net is on the side of decline, there is growth, too.
Digital color: Net decline in offset volume isn't to say that creatives are specing less print. In contrast to the 15 percent of creatives who see their offset volumes growing "a little" or "a lot," 41 percent see their digital color volumes growing "a little" or "a lot." Only 7 percent see them declining. Digital color volumes may be smaller initially, but document production models are changing, too. Businesses may print the same volume of documents. They just might be printing them in smaller batches.
One-to-one printing: What about one-to-one printing ("print personalization")? There is a clear division among creatives on these applications. Thirteen percent see their volumes of these jobs increasing. Only 4 percent see them decreasing. And yet, 34 percent of creatives still say that they are not doing one-to-one printing at all.
Design for electronic publishing only: While some printers who have not yet vested themselves in digital printing workflows worry about migration of offset jobs to digital, others worry about offset and digital jobs migrating out of hard copy altogether. They should. Nearly one-quarter (23 percent) of creatives indicate that jobs designed "for electronic publishing only" are growing, although the plurality (18 percent) say they are growing "a little" rather than "a lot." Only 5 percent see these jobs declining.
The question is whether that volume is coming out of the hard copy volume or whether it's additional growth. To get a sense for the answer to this question, we look at the data for hard copy jobs, such as printed booklets and brochures, direct mail, and catalogs (whether offset or digital). Here there is some comfort, since the net change is on the side of growth rather than decline, but the emphasis is on "some." The difference is not dramatic.
Design for e-mail marketing: Design for e-mail marketing is nearly identical to that for electronic publishing only. Nearly one-quarter (23 percent) of creatives see these jobs increasing, versus 7 percent who see them decreasing. Comparing that to design for printed direct mail and catalogs, however, there is yet more concern for print shops. Only 18 percent of creatives see printed direct mail and catalogs increasing, compared to 13 percent who see it declining.
Advertising for print/Web: Comparing the "advertising for print" and "advertising for the Web (like banner ads)" is also sobering. In both categories, about one-quarter of creatives see their billings or job volumes increasing, but when it comes to print advertising, the "declining" numbers are double those for the Web. Fourteen percent of creatives see their print advertising volumes declining, while only 7 percent see Web advertising volumes declining.
Digital photography for print/Web: When it comes to digital photography, we see something interesting. Creatives report that their volumes or billings for high-res digital photography for print jobs are growing more than their volumes or billings for low-res digital photography for Web jobs. One-third (33 percent) see their volumes of high-res photography for print jobs growing "a little" or "a lot," compared to 26 percent for Web jobs. Of course, just because creatives are doing more photography doesn't mean that they are doing more print. The lower volume of photography for the Web could also be attributed to an increase in use of stock imagery rather than custom images.
Letting it Sink In
These numbers are certainly a fascinating snapshot of what is happening not only in the creative markets, but in their client bases. But when I sit back and let these numbers sink in, it's not what creatives need to take away from them that strikes me the most. It's what printers need to take from them. On one hand, it's easy to say that printers need to be more aware of the loss of print volume to electronic media. That's certainly nothing new. What strikes me is the contrast between these data, and the data for the Industry Measure's most recent printing survey, IM Printing #26 (Fall 2007).
If the majority of printers were aware of the depth of the problem posed by non-print media and were making adjustments to their business models to accommodate it, it wouldn't be such a big deal. But, in IM's question about top challenges to printers' businesses, guess the percentage of printers who see "jobs lost to PDF and non-print publishing" as a significant challenge? Sixty percent? Forty percent? No, it's a dismal 15 percent.
So the concern isn't just the migration of jobs from print to non-print media. It's printers' seeming lack of awareness or concern about it. Sure, for both electronic and hard copy jobs, the net falls on the side of growth rather than decline, but again, the balance is slight. And if they aren't concerned about it, they certainly aren't doing anything about it.
Heidi Tolliver Nigro is an industry writer, an analyst specializing in digital workflow technologies. Her e-mail address is htollvr@aol.com.
author: By Heidi Tolliver Nigro